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| #1248465 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 15.Oct.2025) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2025 While convection associated with Lorenzo has increased during the last few hours, satellite imagery suggests the circulation is becoming elongated north-south as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 30-40 kt range, and the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt. Lorenzo has turned northward with the initial motion now 010/11 kt. A turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected later today as the system encounters stronger southwesterly flow, and this general motion should continue until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is a little to the southeast of the previous track and lies close to the various consensus models. The dynamical guidance continues to indicate that Lorenzo will degenerate to a trough due to shear and dry air intrusion, with most of the models showing this happening during the next 24 h. The new intensity forecast moves up the time of dissipation to between 24-36 h, and Lorenzo could dissipate earlier than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 20.5N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 25.7N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
