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| #1249111 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 21.Oct.2025) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING MELISSA.. ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 72.6W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast of Haiti from the border with Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 72.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across Puerto Rico through at least Friday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci |
