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| #1249170 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 22.Oct.2025) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING MELISSA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 74.0W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was estimated near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.0 West. While the storm has recently been nearly stationary, Melissa is expected to move toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) overnight. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. Across eastern Jamaica, 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected, also with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday; however, uncertainty in Melissas track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible. Across the northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Friday. For Aruba, western Jamaica, and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Friday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
