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Hurricane Watches are now up for Jamiaca, one more day until shear starts to abate, preparations in Jamaica should begin now. Flooding rains likely regardless of direct landfall.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 378 (Milton) , Major: 378 (Milton) Florida - Any: 378 (Milton) Major: 378 (Milton)
TS Melissa
ADV#9A 2:00 pm EDT
15.5N 75.3W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
Nnw at 2 mph
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#1249181 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 22.Oct.2025)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 75SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 73.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE