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| #1249198 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 22.Oct.2025) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...RECON FINDS MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Melissa is moving very slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in Melissas track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible. Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin |
