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| #1249263 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 22.Oct.2025) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and satellite imagery indicate that Melissa remains a sheared tropical cyclone, With The low-level center of the storm situated to the west and northwest of the main areas of thunderstorms. The convection continue to be very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. There is some evidence of a convective banding feature over the southern portion of the circulation, but the overall cloud pattern is not well organized. Upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west of the storm due to the west-northwesterly shear. Tail Doppler data from the NOAA aircraft show a significant eastward tilt of the vortex with height. Observations from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is not falling at this time, and that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt. This is also supported by objective satellite-derived intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. Center fixes from the aircraft show that Melissa is still moving very slowly, at around 270/2 kt. In the short term, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward in a weakness in the mid-level ridge. In 48 hours or so, a weak ridge is expected to build to the north of Melissa which should induce a westward turn. Around the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to weaken and the system is predicted to turn to the right. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies between the latest HCCA corrected consensus and the simple dynamical model consensus. This is somewhat west of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean forecast. There continues to be a large spread in the guidance models, indicating less than normal confidence in the track forecast, especially around day 5. Melissa is likely to continue to be influenced by significant westerly vertical wind shear during the next day or two, so only slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, the global models show a relaxation of the shear. This, along with the very high oceanic heat content over the area, could result in significant strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and very close to the HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and could potentially become a major hurricane by late this weekend or early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the latest forecasts. 2. Due to Melissas slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or Friday and continue increasing over the weekend. 3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
