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| #1249277 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 23.Oct.2025) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 74.7W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn by the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, with more substantial intensification expected by the weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica tonight or on Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty in Melissas track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
