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| #1250114 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 29.Oct.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Radar data and satellite images indicate that Melissa made landfall in the province of Santiago de Cuba to the east of Chivirico around 0710 UTC this morning. The estimated landfall intensity of 105 kt was based on a blend of the earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind and pressure data with the available satellite intensity estimates. The hurricane is now centered inland over eastern Cuba, where damaging winds and heavy rainfall continue across the region. Outer rainbands are also noted across Haiti and portions of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Land interaction with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba has likely caused some weakening over the past couple of hours, so the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt. The hurricane is moving to the northeast at 10 kt within the flow between an upper trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. After crossing eastern Cuba this morning, Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during the next several days. This motion will bring the core of the hurricane over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas later today. Then, the track models are tightly clustered on the center of Melissa passing to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. With good overall model agreement, no notable changes were made to this portion of the NHC track forecast. There was a leftward shift in much of the guidance at 96-120 h, and the official track forecast was adjusted to reflect these trends. Additional weakening is expected while the hurricane moves across eastern Cuba this morning. Melissa is expected to remain a strong hurricane while it crosses portions of the Bahamas later today. Over the next few days, increasing vertical wind shear, cooler waters, and a drier surrounding mid-level environment will likely induce further weakening. However, Melissa is forecast to still be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda later this week. Then, the global model fields and model-simulated satellite imagery show Melissa quickly losing tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical cyclone by Friday night or early Saturday. No major changes were made to the updated NHC intensity prediction, which remains near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: You may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected through this morning. 3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and landslides, and damaging hurricane winds are ongoing this morning. Remain in a safe shelter. 4. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. 5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 76.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 29.0N 69.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 34.2N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 40.3N 58.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z 53.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0600Z 58.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
