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| #1250355 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 31.Oct.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 Recent satellite images show Melissa is quickly losing tropical characteristics. The estimated low-level center is displaced well to the west of the weakening convection associated with the system. Decreasing satellite intensity estimates and the latest global model wind fields support lowering the intensity to 80 kt this morning. Earlier ASCAT data showed an expanding wind field in the southern semicircle of Melissa, with 50-kt winds that extended up to 140 n mi from the center in the southeastern quadrant. Large swells from Melissa are spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting in hazardous marine conditions in this region. Melissa remains in a highly-sheared environment and will move over rapidly cooling SSTs while completing extratropical transition today. Based on current satellite trends and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, the updated NHC forecast now shows Melissa becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone in 12 h, though this could occur as soon as later this morning. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Melissa will remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it moves over the North Atlantic through early next week. Melissa is racing northeastward (040/36 kt) away from Bermuda and is expected to continue this general motion for the next day or two within the flow ahead of an upper-level trough. The tightly clustered track guidance agrees that the center of post-tropical Melissa will pass near, but to the south of, the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland late tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty winds and heavy rain. Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to turn east-northeastward while interacting with a higher-latitude, upper-level low over the North Atlantic. The latest NHC track prediction remains very similar to the previous forecast, generally following a blend of the HCCA and GDMI aids. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Gusty winds over Bermuda are expected to gradually subside this morning. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid areas of downed power lines and flooding. The flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another day or two. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 35.9N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 40.4N 58.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0600Z 46.4N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 54.1N 39.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1800Z 55.6N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z 56.8N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z 60.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
