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| #1268461 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 16.Jun.2026) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on surface and radar data. The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect the low to continue moving in that general direction with some increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus HCCA. The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the Texas Coast and Louisiana. 2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
