Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the middle Texas coast.
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| #1268542 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 16.Jun.2026) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The low pressure area continues to produce disorganized deep convection mostly over water, almost exclusively in the eastern semicircle. However, the low-level center has become better defined during the day according to satellite and surface data, along with falling pressures. While the system is fairly close to transitioning into a tropical depression, it is still a bit shy of a well-defined center and consistent convection. Thus the system remains a potential tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity is 25 kt based on surface and radar data. The low continues to slowly move northeastward. It is expected to move offshore of south Texas tonight and accelerate northeastward along the coast on Wednesday due to the system encountering faster flow associated with a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. Model guidance is about the same as before, moving very near the Texas coast on Wednesday before going back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. The circulation is expected to quickly dissipate over central Louisiana on Thursday. The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters and upper-level jet dynamics. Most of the guidance show the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, and the official forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 27.3N 97.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0600Z 27.9N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/1800Z 29.2N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
