Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the middle Texas coast.
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| #1268583 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 16.Jun.2026) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the northwestern Gulf. Surface observations do not show very strong winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held at 25 kt. This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away from the center of the low. Given that there has been no noticeable increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little change in the track model guidance. The system is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast track shows the disturbance or storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast during the next day or so. Then the system is likely to go back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant change has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus solution. The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters and upper-level divergence. However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which should limit strengthening up to landfall. The NHC forecast continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 27.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Adams |
