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Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the middle Texas coast.
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| #1268628 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 17.Jun.2026) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 The center of the low pressure area is very near the Middle Texas coast, and offshore buoy observations indicate that maximum winds remain 25 kt. A line of deep convection has formed over the northwestern Gulf waters since the last advisory, but due to strong westerly shear, this activity is located more than 120 n mi to the east/southeast of the low-level center. As a result, the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB is Too Weak To Classify, meaning the system does not have the convective organization necessary to be designated as a tropical cyclone. The current motion is northeastward, or 045/5 kt. The system is embedded in strengthening low- to mid-level southwesterly flow, and with another trough approaching from the northwest, it is expected to accelerate northeastward today. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward on this cycle, and the center of the low is therefore likely to straddle the Texas coast for much of the day, before moving farther inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana tonight. The NHC official track has been nudged westward, close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The prospects for this system to become a tropical cyclone may be decreasing. With the low-level center unlikely to fully emerge over the Gulf waters for an appreciable amount of time, and 25-30 kt of westerly shear expected to continue for the next 12 hours, it will be difficult for the system to gain the convective organization necessary to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland tonight. Even if the system doesn`t become a tropical cyclone, there could still be some strengthening of the wind field well east of the center during the day, and the NHC official forecast will continue to show a peak of 35 kt in 12 hours. After that, all of the global models now show the system opening up into a trough over Louisiana by tonight. The official forecast shows the system as a remnant low at 24 hours, but it`s entirely possible it will have dissipated by then. The global models show the remnant low-level vorticity continuing eastward across the Southeast U.S. on Thursday and Friday, and the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET models indicate that a low pressure system could redevelop, especially once the system moves offshore over the western Atlantic. The exact nature of this low is unclear at this time, but we will monitor model trends for the possibility of tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast today from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 28.0N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1800Z 29.1N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/0600Z 31.1N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
