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Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the middle Texas coast.
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| #1268629 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 17.Jun.2026) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 96.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sargent to Sabine Pass A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 96.7 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the low pressure area should move northeastward along the Texas coast today and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance could become a tropical storm today. Weakening is anticipated once the low moves inland, and it could dissipate by tonight or early Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area and expected within the warning area later today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents TORNADO: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Thursday from the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen |
