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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF. WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
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| #1272591 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 20.Jul.2026) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The tropical depression continues to have a fairly unimpressive appearance on satellite imagery, with just a few fragments of deep convection around the circulation center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been sampling the system this morning, finding that the pressure continues to gradually decrease with a peak 925 mb flight level wind of 38 kt. This data is the primary justification for increasing the winds slightly to 30 kt for this advisory. Recon fixes indicate that the depression is now moving slowly northwestward at 320/3 kt. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. The byproduct of this change is that the system should begin to gradually turn more west-northwestward and westward by the middle of this week. This track should bring the cyclone near or along the Gulf coast, approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River by 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a little northward over these first few days, and the NHC track forecast was also shifted in that direction, blending the simple consensus aid TVCN with the Google DeepMind (GDMI) track guidance. As mentioned previously, the depression`s broad structure and mid-level dry air are keeping the convection limited. Thus, its intensification continues to be gradual. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue to slowly intensify while the shear remains low to moderate. After 36 h, northeasterly shear is expected to increase markedly, and the guidance is coming into better agreement that this should halt additional intensification after that time. With the northward shift in the track, the tropical cyclone is more likely to be disrupted by land interaction beyond 60 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows gradual weakening afterwards. This intensity forecast still remains sensitive to the ultimate track, though it is notable that the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean only tracks the cyclone out to 72 h, suggesting the majority of its members dissipate the system beyond that period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous cycle after 72 h, but it wouldn`t be surprising if future adjustments are needed if more guidance trends towards a further inland solution. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast beginning tonight into Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Interests in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.5N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin |
