Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Two Areas of Interest in the Atlantic: 95L and 96L. Neither are any obvious or immediate threat to land.
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| #1273011 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 23.Jul.2026) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of Bertha has moved or re-formed offshore of the coast of southern Louisiana. The storm is producing a large area of intense convection over the southwestern quadrant, with the elongated low-level center at the northeastern edge of the convection. Surface observations and scatterometer data show that the maximum winds are near 40 kt and the minimum central pressure is near 1003 mb. Coastal Doppler radar data also shows that the mid-level center is displaced well to the southwest of the low-level center, and that there has been a persistent supercell thunderstorm with a mesocyclone moving westward through Bertha`s southwestern quadrant. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/11 kt. As before, the steering mechanism is a large and strong mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the south-central United States. Bertha should move along the southern periphery of this feature for the next day or so, with the center reaching the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts later today. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is forecast until the cyclone dissipates. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Some erratic motion could occur before landfall due to possible center reformation caused by convective bursts. Continued moderate to strong northeasterly shear and dry air entrainment should prevent significant strengthening before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipated between 36-48 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along the northwestern Gulf Coast from south central Louisiana to the upper Texas coast today. 2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for portions of the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 29.0N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 29.3N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 29.0N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 28.5N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
