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| #1276865 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 27.Aug.2026) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with organized deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear, causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the southern side of the circulation largely away from the center. Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Dolly. The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the guidance envelope. This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and poleward in the tropical Atlantic. The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and dry air aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is possible, consistent with the model consensus. All of our guidance is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone when it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 13.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
