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| #1276896 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 27.Aug.2026) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026 500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026 Dolly has been struggling to develop deep thunderstorm activity near the center during the day, though a new convective burst has recently gone up in the southern semicircle. Overall the environment appears rather dry, with most of the northern portion of the circulation exposed. Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest little change in wind speed, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt on this advisory. The initial motion estimate continues at 275/21 kt. Dolly is forecast to move quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. There aren't many guidance changes to report as the models are tightly clustered on a path towards the Leeward Islands. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast, remaining on the faster and southward side of the guidance envelope. The environment around Dolly will likely become unfavorable for strengthening on Friday with increasing southwesterly shear due to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and dry air aloft. Until then, some modest intensification is possible, consistent with the model consensus. Global and regional models all show Dolly degenerating into a strong tropical wave on Friday or Saturday before it reaches the Leeward Islands, and our forecast shows this decay by the weekend. The timing of the transition was moved up slightly from the last advisory, otherwise no other changes were made to the forecast. Post-tropical positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 13.7N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.1N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 14.7N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.5N 57.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 30/0600Z 17.3N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
