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| #1279302 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 19.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI. The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly under HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg |
