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| #1279363 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 19.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 The convective organization of the depression has increased somewhat since the last advisory, with multiple convective bands in the northern semicircle. This increase is reflected in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now suggesting the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength. However, an ASCAT-C overpass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. Based mainly on that the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. Cirrus cloud motion indicate that an upper-level cyclonic shear axis is located near or just south of the center, with very strong upper-level westerly flow over the southern part of the low-level circulation. The initial motion is 020/4 kt. The depression is in an area of weak steering currents between a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest. During the next couple of days, the southern portion of this trough is expected to weaken, with a low- to mid-level ridge developing to the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. This should result in the cyclone stopping its north-northeastward motion and turning toward the southwest. A general southwestward motion is then likely until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted a bit westward after 36 h, and the new forecast track is also nudged a bit west of the previous track. The dynamical models are forecasting a small upper-level low to develop along the cyclonic shear axis near or south of the tropical depression during the next 12 h or so. This is likely create a less hostile shear environment around the depression that should allow some intensification. After 24 h, the models are in good agreement that strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds will move over the cyclone, creating strong shear and causing weakening. While the models forecast the shear to diminish after 48-60 h, the cyclone or its remnants will be in an area of dry air and subsidence that cause cause the convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm for a day or so, followed by weakening to a remnant low between 60-72 h. Based on the dynamical models, the remnant low is forecast to weaken to a trough between 96-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 33.3N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 33.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 34.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 33.6N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 30.4N 35.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 39.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
