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| #1279513 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 21.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay is now feeling the effects of strong vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become significantly vertical tilted, with the low-level center now well north-northwest of the mid-level center. The initial intensity is nudged down to 55 kt, which lies at the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Continued strong northerly vertical wind shear, along with intrusions of dry air should cause Fay to steadily weaken over the next few days. In fact, simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models show deep convection completely dissipating within the next 24 hours due to the harsh atmospheric conditions. Based on the latest guidance and satellite trends, the new forecast calls for a faster rate of weakening, with the transition to a remnant low now expected by 48 hours and dissipation in 4-5 days. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Fay appears to have turned southward at a slow pace, as expected, as the mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic lifts out. A faster southwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as a low- to mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of the cyclone. This pattern should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation later in the week. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 33.8N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
