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| #1279652 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 22.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the maximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back in the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low later today. The system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the north of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous forecast. Currently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the shear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong upper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air entrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite imagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent organized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new intensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual weakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 31.1N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
