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| #1279919 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 24.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Deep convection continues near and northeast of Fay`s center, though the southwestern portion of the circulation is partially exposed. There has been no significant change to the satellite intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Fay has some chance to intensify overnight before an increase in easterly shear helps mix in very dry air outside the central core. The shear is expected to get fairly strong by the weekend, which should cause Fay to decay into a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. Fay`s initial motion is unchanged at 270/5 kt. A ridge over the central Atlantic should steer the storm slowly westward during the next few days. Track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the new forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the Google DeepMind and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 29.8N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/0600Z 29.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
