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| #1279947 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 24.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 Fay has developed a more consistent area of deep convection about its center since the last advisory. Little has changed with the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of this storm, however. CIMSS-UW objective estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, while TAFB rated Fay at 3.0 or 45 kt. Because of this, Fay`s initial intensity has been held steady at 45 kt. The initial motion remains at 270/5 kt. Fay`s forward motion is expected to remain slow as its steering environment is characterized by weak easterly winds within the Atlantic subtropical high. Over the next 24 h, Fay is expected to shift west-southwest and then southwest as high pressure amplifies to its west. At the same time, Fay`s speed is expected to decrease even further. The latest track forecast reflects this trend toward the southwest, and closely follows HCCA guidance. With convection deepening on satellite imagery, Fay could experience a brief increase in intensity overnight, before steady weakening is forecast as the storm experiences increasingly drier mid-level air and vertical wind shear. While global forecast models suggest that Fay will lose its convection over the weekend, its closed circulation may persist into the middle of next week, allowing Fay to remain a post-tropical remnant low during that time. The main change for the latest forecast was to reflect a later dissipation time, but otherwise Fay`s overall trend remains the same. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 29.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 29.8N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 29.7N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/1200Z 29.4N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 29.0N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Kelly |
