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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280019 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 25.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 Convection continues to increase mostly on the northern side of Fay, while resisting dry air entrainment based as displayed on the visible and water vapor imagery. The lastest TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T2.5/45 kt, however a recent SAR pass found peak winds around 55 kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 37-42 kt. A recent ASCAT pass showed that some of the peak wind vectors were around 40 kt, but given the small size of Fay, it is possible that the ASCAT is undersampling the peak winds. Based on a compromise of all the available data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. Additional strengthening is still possible over the next several hours, as Fay is in a region of weak deep-layer shear and marginally favorable thermodynamic conditions. The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that northerly wind shear will increase tonight, which should help force dry air into the cyclone. Therefore, Fay should gradually weaken through the period, and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone during the weekend. The current NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 275/3 kt and is steered by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. The initial position for Fay has been adjusted to the left of the previous advisory and the center of the cyclone appears to have reformed to the northeast. By Saturday, a gradual turn toward the west-southwest and southwest is forecast while Fay weakens and become a vertically shallow remnant low steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the GDMI ensemble mean and the HCCA corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 30.1N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 30.1N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 29.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 29.5N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/0000Z 29.0N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 27.8N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Roberts |
