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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280058 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 25.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 The convective organization for Fay has taken a turn downward as wind shear and dry air have started to impact the system. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a 2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity from UW-CIMSS is in the range of 37-47 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is expected to gradually weaken as the shear and dry air build over the cyclone. The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that the northerly shear will continue to increase over the next several hours. The wind shear will make it easier for the dry air to penetrate the core of the cyclone and hinder the development of convection. The simulated ECMWF and GFS satellite imagery show that Fay loses its convection towards the end of the weekend, at which point it would become a post-tropical remnant low. However it is possible that this could occur sooner given the intensity of the wind shear being over 20 kt and mid-level relative humidity less than 40 percent. The current NHC intensity forecast is in line with the guidance suite including the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Fay's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/4 kt as the storm is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to continue on a west-southwest to southwest heading through the the forecast period as the storm continues to weaken and become a vertically shallow remnant low steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast, however the forward speed has been increased. The current forecast is still in good agreement with the GDMI ensemble mean and HCCA corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 29.8N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 29.7N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 29.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 28.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0600Z 27.6N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 26.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 26.1N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven |
