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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280090 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 25.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026 Fay's structure is falling apart once again. Satellite imagery shows that most of the deep convection has disappeared over the past several hours. Recent ASCAT data returned a maximum wind retrieval of just 24 kt, but given the low bias of the ASCAT due to its resolution, and the fact that all of the recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates still support tropical storm intensity, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 35 kt. The initial motion remains slow, at 260/3 kt. Steering winds are expected to remain light as Fay sits within the Atlantic subtropical high, with a turn to the south-southwest expected within the next 24 h as the storm meanders into the southern flank of the high. Track forecast models are generally in good agreement for the first 48 h, before exhibiting larger spread thereafter as Fay moves away from the influence of the subtropical high. Skilled models suggest that Fay could be picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next week, but the latest forecast calls for Fay to dissipate by then. Fay has been difficult to forecast, as global models continue to depict recurring cycles of diurnal convection, which have allowed Fay to gain a second wind, so to speak, even as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. This is likely due to SSTs remaining favorable for the storm, even as SHIPS guidance suggest that mid-level moisture is lacking and vertical wind shear remains moderate. Intensity guidance also depicts another re-strengthening of Fay just beyond 48 h, likely due to vertical wind shear relenting. The current thinking behind the forecast, however, is that with Fay weak enough as it is, the current environment will continue to degrade its structure and inhibit its ability to restrengthen. As a result, the latest intensity forecast is relatively conservative, holding Fay's strength somewhat steady as it undergoes these cycles of nocturnal convection, before the storm is expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 29.9N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.9N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 29.2N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 27.2N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen |
