|
Show Selection: |
| #1280130 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 26.Sep.2026) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 800 AM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026 The convective structure of Gonzalo has not changed much during the last 6 hours. It continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, with the somewhat ill-defined low-level center exposed to the southwest of the convective mass due to 30 kt of southwesterly shear occurring over the cyclone. The TAFB current intensity number is 2.5/35 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 34-41 kt. Based on these estimates as well as earlier scatterometer data, the intensity is held at 40 kt, but this could be a bit generous. The initial motion is northward, or 350 degrees at 8 kt. This general motion should continue for another day, followed by a deceleration and a turn toward the west-northwest by Monday. The storm is already experiencing 30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the shear is expected to increase to over 40 kt by hour 12 of the forecast, so I expect the convection to continue moving farther away from the low-level center. This should lead to Gonzalo becoming post-tropical by hour 24 or a bit sooner. Model guidance is in good agreement that Gonzalo will weaken significantly over the next 36 hours, and the NHC forecast follows the guidance. Earlier ASCAT data indicated the low-level circulation was becoming elongated. If this trend continues, then Gonzalo could dissipate sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.6N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.9N 23.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 20.1N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 20.7N 23.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 21.1N 24.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z 21.3N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 21.5N 25.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 21.9N 26.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen |
