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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280156 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 26.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026 Fay has not changed significantly since the previous update. The tropical cyclone is clearly still being impacted by both wind shear and dry air. The most recent TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate was T2.0/30 kt, and the objective intensity estimate is in the range of 31-41 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory. The cyclone continues to drift towards the west-southwest, at 250/4 kt. A more southerly turn is expected as Fay continues move into the southern flank of the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, most of the guidance has the depression turning westward due to the large-scale easterly flow. However there is a bit of uncertainty in the precise timing of this turn. The current NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one with some minor adjustments based on the HCCA forecast aid. There is a high level of uncertainty in the intensity forecast as Fay remains over an area of favorably warm sea-surface temperatures, but vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air will likely continue to hinder the system, preventing a more organized structure from developing. Convection is likely to continue pulsing but the current NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one showing little change in strength with only minor adjustments made. This forecast continues to maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it becomes post-tropical and dissipates by the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 29.6N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 29.5N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 28.8N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 27.9N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 26.8N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 25.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 24.2N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 23.0N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Papin |
