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| #1280159 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 26.Sep.2026) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026 Gonzalo remains a highly sheared tropical storm. Even though the low-level circulation on GOES-19 visible images appears to be somewhat less elongated than overnight, convection continues to be quite displaced to the northeast due to a brutal 45 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. A Metop-C ASCAT pass showed a peak wind of 31 kt to the north of the circulation this morning, but missed the center and the deeper convection to the northeast where the highest winds were previously observed. The initial intensity is thus only lowered to 35 kt this advisory, assuming some stronger winds still exist in the convection to the northeast. The low-level circulation is moving generally north-northwestward at 345 degrees at 9 kt. This general motion should continue today, followed by a slow down and turn to the west-northwest as the increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by a narrow low-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly further north, following the latest trends in the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. Intensity-wise, Gonzalo likely does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone, with convection becoming increasingly displaced from the center as shear over the system remains above 40 kt. Like the previous forecast, weakening is anticipated, and Gonzalo is forecast to become a remnant low in the next 12 h as the convection is completely stripped away. Total dissipation is likely to occur early next week as the remnant low drifts over the subtropical Eastern Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.8N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 20.6N 23.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 21.2N 23.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 21.5N 24.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 21.7N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 21.8N 25.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
