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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280199 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 26.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026 The convection around Fay has been mostly stripped away by the wind shear and the dry air in the environment. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt and the objective intensity estimate is in the range of 29-39 kt. Given that there has been little change in the intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is now slowly moving towards the south, at 180/2 kt. Fay is expected to continue to move southward into the southern flank of the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, the depression should turn westward due to the large-scale easterly flow, but there is still some uncertainty in the timing of this turn. The current NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one with some small adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. The intensity forecast continues to have a high level of uncertainty as Fay is still over favorably warm sea-surface temperatures. However, vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air continue to hinder the depression and preventing a more organized structure from developing. Both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical analysis have mid-level relative humidity less than 40 percent for the next several days. Convection is likely to continue to pulse up and down, but the current NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one showing little change in strength with only minor changes made. This forecast continues to maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it become post-tropical and dissipates by the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 29.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 29.6N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 27.8N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 25.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 24.1N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven |
