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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280227 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 26.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 Although convection around Fay continues to pulsate, the storm's overall structure has degraded. Vertical wind shear has displaced the convection to the south of the fully exposed low-level center. The latest objective Dvorak analysis from UW-CIMSS estimates Fay's intensity between 30 and 35 kt. With the latest ASCAT pass only clipping the storm's western flank, the initial intensity was held steady at 30 kt, mostly to compensate for brief periods of intensification under these convective pulses. Forward speed has slowed to a crawl, with the initial motion set at 190/2 kt. Steering flow is very weak as Fay remains embedded within the southern flank of the Atlantic subtropical high. Track models continue to converge towards a solution, depicting Fay turning southwest and then westward heading into early next week as it is picked up by the prevailing easterlies. The latest NHC track forecast was little changed from the previous advisory, reflecting only a slight eastward shift to blend better with HCCA guidance. Fay's fate will depend on just how long this latest round of nocturnal convection will last. Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggest that these convective pulses may continue into early next week. However, it is possible that Fay could become post-tropical sooner than currently forecast. The latest intensity forecast was essentially unchanged, depicting a relatively steady system on the verge of becoming post-tropical as vertical wind shear continues to inhibit Fay's chances of convective redevelopment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 29.6N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 29.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 28.4N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 27.4N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.8N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 24.6N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 24.0N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen |
