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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280265 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 27.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 Fay's convection has redeveloped once again. Since the last advisory, an area of deep convection located just south of the storm's low-level center has grown in size, with cloud-top temperatures nearing -80°C at times. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB rated Fay at 1.5/25 kt, while objective analysis from UW-CIMSS estimates the storm's strength between 29-36 kt. Given Fay's pulsating cycles of convection, the initial intensity was held steady at 30 kt, with the caveat that brief periods of slightly stronger max winds are entirely possible. Initial motion remains slow at 170/3 kt. However, Fay is expected to gain forward speed soon as it escapes the influence of the Atlantic subtropical high and is picked up by the prevailing easterlies early next week. This will cause a turn to the southwest and then west. The latest track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory, reflecting only a slight rightward shift to blend better with HCCA guidance. As long as Fay remains in an environment characterized by warm SSTs, its cycles of pulsating convection are expected to continue. It was anticipated that strong vertical wind shear would work to break apart Fay's circulation, but the storm has proven resilient. Global forecast models still suggest that convection will completely dissipate by the middle of next week at the latest, before Fay opens up into a trough shortly thereafter. Little was changed in the latest intensity forecast. Fay is expected to waver right around tropical depression or even weak tropical storm strength as convection pulsates, before eventually dissipating for good. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 29.2N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 28.9N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 27.9N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 25.2N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 24.3N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 23.6N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen |
