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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280290 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 27.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 This morning's GOES-19 Proxy-VIS satellite presentation indicates that Fay's cloud pattern has changed little since yesterday, and the TAFB subjective satellite intensity estimate supports 30 kt for this advisory. Modest northerly shear continues to impinge on the north side of the cyclone, displacing the small pulsating deep bursts of convection just to the south of the surface center. The GFS/ECMWF statistical SHIPS intensity guidance indicates little change in the shear pattern and magnitude and the thermodynamic environment through mid-week. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows Fay maintaining depression strength during the next few days. There is growing confidence due to deterministic and AI-single model agreement indicating that Fay will finally lose what little organized convection it has held onto, and eventually open up into a trough toward the end of the week. The official intensity forecast follows this scenario and is based on the aforementioned SHIPS and the HFIP HCCA guidance. Fay's initial motion is estimated to be south-southeastward, or 160/3 kt. Fay is forecast to move southwestward to west-southwestward around the southeastern peripheral low-level flow of a subtropical high located midway between Bermuda and the cyclone. A few of the deterministic models indicate slight strengthening of the aforementioned ridge early in the period. Therefore, a slight increase in forward speed is indicated in the NHC forecast beyond Tuesday, and this agrees with the better performing consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 29.3N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 28.8N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 27.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 26.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 25.3N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 24.6N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
