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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280321 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 27.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 Fay is barely a tropical cyclone. The system basically consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with a patch of sheared and disorganized convection located more than 60 n mi south-southwest of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in general agreement with the latest satellite intensity estimates. Moderate wind shear and stable air should cause convection to pulse, but it will likely have a hard time organizing and persisting near the center over the next few days. Based on the expected environmental conditions and current structure, the system is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, but that transition could occur much sooner if organized deep convection does not return. Regardless of this system's status, little change in strength is expected during the next few days until it dissipates later this week. Fay has been moving slowly southward over the past several hours, and a slow southward to southwestward motion in the low-level flow is expected over the next few days. The global models show the system degenerating into a trough in 3 to 4 days, and that is reflected in this forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 28.9N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 28.1N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 27.1N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 25.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 25.1N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0600Z 24.4N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
