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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280347 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 27.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 Little can be said about Fay that hasn't been said already across previous advisories. The storm continues to undergo rounds of diurnal, pulsating convection, allowing for it to remain a tropical depression despite being disorganized and weak. Scatterometry data from around 2300 UTC also confirms that a closed, albeit weak, circulation persists. With max winds from this scatterometry pass reading around 20 kt, the initial intensity for Fay was set at 25 kt. The initial motion was set at 190/5 kt. Fay is beginning to pick up speed as it escapes the influence of the subtropical Atlantic high and is carried more by the prevailing easterlies. A brief southeastward shift was evident on satellite just a few hours ago, but now Fay is beginning its forecasted southwestward to west-southwestward turn. The only notable change in the latest track forecast was to increase Fay's forward speed during the latter half of the forecast period, to fall better in line with the HCCA guidance. Global models continue to suggest that Fay will degenerate into a trough during the middle of the week, with post-tropical transition occuring just before. Fluctuations in Fay's intensity are expected so long as these diurnal cycles of convection continue, however with now two consecutive scatterometry passes depicting Fay's max winds at around 21 kt, the intensity forecast was left at 25 kt throughout the period, with little in the guidance and synoptic environment to suggest that Fay will strengthen meaningfully beyond that before finally dissipating. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 43.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.6N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.3N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.2N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 24.5N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z 24.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi |
