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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280384 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 28.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 Fay's convection has persisted a bit longer overnight than previously seen the last couple of days. Dvorak intensity estimates appear to have picked up on this, with TAFB providing a subjective estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Based primarily on Fay's satellite presentation since the last advisory, the initial intensity was raised slightly to 30 kt, but Fay remains a tropical depression. The forecast increase in forward speed, as well as a turn to the southwest, is becoming more evident on satellite imagery. For this advisory, the initial motion is set at 210/6 kt. Track guidance remains in fairly good agreement on Fay tracking to the southwest and then west-southwest as it is steered by the prevailing easterlies along the southern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high. The greatest uncertainty across the guidance is the forward speed of the depression. The latest track forecast shows a faster forward speed over the next 48 h, in close agreement with the HCCA guidance. So long as organized deep convection persists and scatterometry data depicts a closed low, Fay will remain a tropical depression. Even as SHIPS guidance shows Fay entering a favorable environment in terms of SSTs, vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture, the current forecast thinking is that Fay's presence under mid- to upper-level ridging will drive convergence aloft and weaken its circulation to the point of dissipation. Global models agree on this and have Fay ultimately dissipating during the day Wednesday, with the exception of the UKMET, which holds onto the cyclone through the end of the week. The latest intensity forecast shows Fay becoming post-tropical late Tuesday, with dissipation a day or two later. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 27.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 27.0N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 25.5N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 24.4N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen/Mahoney |
