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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280406 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 28.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection, mainly to the south of the low-level center. A recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated the highest reliable satellite-derived surface winds were around 25-30 kt, which is in good agreement with the TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Although some of the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are higher, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, leaning toward the scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be south-southwestward, or 210/8 kt. Fay should continue to move south-southwestward to southwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. Track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this general motion, with the primary differences being in the along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected-consensus aid. Fay has maintained persistent convection near the low-level center within a favorable environment over warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. It is possible Fay could regain tropical storm strength. However, this favorable environment is expected to be short-lived. Global models continue to show the system will struggle to produce deep convection in a day or so as it encounters a more stable air mass and convergence aloft. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing the system dissipating late Tuesday and degenerating into a surface trough shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 27.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.0N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 24.6N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 23.1N 50.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
