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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280444 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 28.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 500 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026 Fay has continued to produce bursts of deep convection this afternoon, primarily sheared to the south of the low-level center. The overall satellite presentation has improved slightly since earlier today, featuring cold cloud tops near -70C. Objective UW-CIMSS satellite intensity estimates have been running slightly higher than the scatterometer-derived surface wind data from earlier today. However, the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB has held steady at T2.0/30 kt. Accordingly, the initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is moving southwestward with an estimated initial motion of 220/8 kt. A general southwest to west-southwest motion is anticipated over the next couple of days as Fay is steered by the flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies very close to the HCCA corrected-consensus aid. Fay continues to defy model guidance by maintaining deep convection near its low-level center. Given that vertical wind shear remains low-to-moderate and sea surface temperatures are near 29C, it is entirely possible that Fay could briefly regain tropical storm strength tonight. Global models persist in showing that the system will struggle to sustain deep convection in a day or so as it encounters a more stable air mass and upper-level convergence. Nevertheless, Fay has proven to be a resilient, small system. The latest NHC intensity forecast holds Fay steady through Tuesday followed by gradual weakening, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so, and degenerate into a remnant trough in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 26.6N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 25.6N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 24.4N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 23.4N 50.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 22.8N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
