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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280467 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 28.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026 The convection around Fay continues to improve during the evening hours, but is still a bit sheared to the south of the low-level center. A few cloud tops near -70 C persist, with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS in the range of 34-43 kt. However, the latest TAFB Dvorak fix was a T2.0/30 kt. Based on the given data, the intensity has been risen to 35 kt for this advisory, which makes Fay a tropical storm again. The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated initial motion of 225/8 kt. This general southwest to west-southwest motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days as Fay is guided by the flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic. The current NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one with just a few minor adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. The intensity of the cyclone is likely to continue to fluctuate for the next couple of days as convection continues to pulsate, but that convection will likely be sheared away from the center since SHIPS guidance indicates increasing shear over the next day or so. The global models still show that Fay will struggle to maintain deep convection once it moves into a more stable air mass and an area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity forecast only shows minor changes in intensity with Fay becoming a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so, then degenerate into a trough in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 26.0N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 25.1N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 23.9N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 22.8N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Hagen |
