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| #1280472 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 28.Sep.2026) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026 Satellite imagery shows Hanna's convective structure remains highly sheared with an exposed center. The deepest convection remains displaced to the east of the tropical storm's center due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB came in at T2.0/30 kt, slightly below objective estimates ranging between 35 and 50 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion continues east-southeastward at 105/12 kt. Hanna is embedded in the flow between a longwave trough to its northeast and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic pattern should result in a continued east-southeastward motion over the next 24–36 hours with a gradual slowdown in the track as the mid-latitude trough leaves Hanna behind. Much of the track guidance then shows a slow east-northeastward motion after the cyclone becomes vertically shallow and influenced by a low-level ridge centered south of the Azores. The updated NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous advisory and the corrected consensus (HCCA) aid, nudging the track slightly southward. Hanna is expected to remain in a hostile environment, with moderate to strong vertical wind shear prevailing over the next 48–72 h. However, because the tropical storm is generally moving in the same direction as the shear vector, deeper convection well east of the center may allow for slight intensification, as portrayed in some reliable guidance. SHIPS guidance indicates that vertical wind shear will only increase throughout the forecast period, while mid-level RH values show the storm being starved of moisture, which may weaken the system. Hanna is expected to be devoid of deep convection around the 60 h mark, degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 36.0N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 34.9N 45.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 34.1N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 34.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 34.4N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 35.2N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 36.3N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart |
