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Atlantic is quiet as the El Niño fueled Pacific continues firing on all cylinders
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| #1280503 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 29.Sep.2026) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 Satellite imagery shows Hanna's convective structure has not changed much and still displays an exposed low-level center due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The deepest convection remains displaced east of the tropical storm's center. A 0225 UTC OSCAT scatterometer pass revealed an asymmetric wind field. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, slightly below objective estimates ranging between 34 and 43 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion continues east-southeastward at 105/13 kt. Hanna is embedded in the flow between a longwave trough to its northeast and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic pattern should result in a continued east-southeastward motion over the next 24 h or so, with a gradual slowdown in forward speed as the mid-latitude trough leaves Hanna behind. Much of the track guidance then shows a slightly quicker east-northeastward motion after the cyclone becomes vertically shallow and influenced by a low-level ridge centered south of the Azores. The updated NHC track forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, roughly in between the simple (TVCN) and corrected consensus (HCCA) aids. Tropical Storm Hanna is forecast to persist in a moisture-starved environment, with moderate to strong vertical wind shear prevailing over the next 48 to 72 h. However, some near-term fluctuations in intensity are possible during this period as intermittent bursts of deep convection well east of the center may allow for slight intensification. Thereafter, Hanna is expected to be devoid of deep convection around the 60 h mark, degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 35.2N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 34.4N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 33.9N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 34.2N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 34.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 35.8N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 37.0N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Pasch |
