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| #1280531 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 29.Sep.2026) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Hanna continues as a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center mostly exposed to the west of the main convective area. The cyclone also remains just south of a weak frontal boundary. Based on a just received ASCAT overpass, the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The scatterometer data also suggests that the circulation is becoming less well defined as it interacts with the frontal boundary. The initial motion is now 125/10 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Hanna is embedded in the flow between a broad mid-latitude trough to its northeast and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic pattern should result in a southeastward or east-southward motion over the next 12-24 h with a gradual decrease in forward speed. An east-northeastward motion is then expected as the cyclone becomes vertically shallow and influenced by a low-level ridge centered south of the Azores. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. Hanna should gradually weaken due to shear and dry air entrainment, and the system is likely to stop producing convection and degenerate to a remnant low between 36-48 h based on global model simulated satellite imagery. The system is expected to weaken to a trough by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 34.6N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 34.0N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 33.9N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 34.5N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 35.3N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/0000Z 36.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z 37.4N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
