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MULTI-STATE MULTI-DAY FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH POLO, ODALYS & RACHEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
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| #1280532 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 29.Sep.2026) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center completely exposed and all the deep convection sheared well to the southwest. This remaining convection continues to be displaced further and further away from the low-level center. Recent satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB have trended downward to around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 30 kt, making Fay a tropical depression once again. Fay is moving southwestward, or 225/10 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge located over the central Atlantic. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update to the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with HCCA corrected-consensus aid. The depression is expected to continue to deal with increasing vertical wind shear, which should limit convection near the low-level center. As Fay moves into a more stable airmass, global models are in good agreement that the cyclone will become completely devoid of deep convection by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time, before opening into a trough shortly thereafter. Given the increasingly hostile environment, it is entirely possible that the system could become post-tropical or dissipate even earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 24.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
