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Atlantic is quiet as the El Niño fueled Pacific continues firing on all cylinders
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| #1280591 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 29.Sep.2026) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026 Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that the low-level center remains exposed to the west of the main convection area. The convective pattern has become even more elongated west-east, likely influenced by the nearby frontal boundary. A 0032 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows peak winds of 33 kt in the northeast quadrant. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.5/35 kt, aligning well with the mostly unchanged UW-CIMSS objective estimates. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion remains southeastward, now 130/10 kt, as Hanna is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to the southwest of a large trough over the northeastern Atlantic. During the next 12–24 h, the flow near the cyclone will become more west-to-east, and as Hanna weakens vertically a low-level ridge centered south of the Azores will become the main steering influence. This should result in the cyclone, or its remnants, turning east-northeastward. The updated NHC forecast track was largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA). Hanna is forecast to gradually weaken as it persists in a moisture-starved environment, with moderate to strong vertical wind shear prevailing over the next 48 to 72 h. The latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite imagery now forecasts the system to stop producing convection in 24-36 h, at which time it would degenerate into a remnant low. After that, the remnant low is expected to open into a trough by 96 h. However, it is possible that the system becomes a post-tropical system sooner if it merges with the nearby front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 33.7N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 33.6N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 34.1N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 34.7N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 35.4N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z 36.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0000Z 36.6N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi |
