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Atlantic is quiet as the El Niño fueled Pacific continues firing on all cylinders
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| #1280622 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 30.Sep.2026) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 900 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026 This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of a poorly organized, severely sheared tropical cyclone. Although the associated deep convection is more than 170 mi east of the surface center, a 0318 UTC OSCAT-3 scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is still producing a small area of tropical-storm-force winds. Based on this satellite-derived wind data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Hanna should gradually weaken today due to increasing deep-layer northwesterly shear, and continued dry air entrainment. The GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite/IR imagery prediction shows Hanna quickly losing organized deep convection and becoming a post-tropical cyclone by tonight and opening into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. The global models and the statistical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance are also indicating that the remnants of Hanna could merge with a baroclinic system on Friday. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. Hanna's initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 120/4 kt. This general motion should continue this morning while the cyclone remains in the low- to mid-level mid-latitude westerly steering flow provided by a longwave trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic. By this evening, Hanna should turn east-northeastward while the cyclone degenerates into a swirl of low clouds and is steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 33.5N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 33.9N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 34.4N 41.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 35.2N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 35.4N 36.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z 35.6N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 35.3N 32.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
