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| #131018 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 10.May.2007) TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007 EVEN THOUGH A FEW INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THIS ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AND WEAK. ESSENTIALLY...ANDREA HAS BEEN VOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON NEARBY SHIP WJBJ. ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 180/3. LACKING APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REMNANT OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOOP CYCLONICALLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC CYCLONE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 29.3N 79.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 79.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.9N 79.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 79.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 78.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
