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| #133986 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 02.Jun.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D INDCIATE THAT BARRY HAS MINIMAL CENTRAL CONVECTION AT THIS TIME... WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THE SHEAR...THERE ARE NO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL CORE IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE BARRY IN A FEW HOURS TO SEE IF IT HAS WEAKENED. BARRY IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/13. THE STORM SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW SHOULD DRIVE BARRY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE U. S. TROUGH ABSORBS THE SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE DIRECTION. THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE CENTER OVER WATER...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH A TRACK NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE U. S. COAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THESE POSSIBILTITES...BEING SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BARRY IS INTERACTING WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE STORM CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY DIFLUENT...AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP NEAR THE CENTER BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES. ONE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW BARRY TO CONTINUE AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH GALES EAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 25.9N 84.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 28.2N 82.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 31.3N 80.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1800Z 34.0N 78.6W 40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0600Z 36.7N 75.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0600Z 44.0N 70.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
