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| #143720 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 31.Jul.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL CENTER ON SATELLITE. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 1000 UTC SHOWED BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 45 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED. GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT CHANTAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN PART OF A LARGE POWERFUL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A LITTLE ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE STORM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH SOME ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS CHANTAL IS STEERED BY A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 40.2N 62.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 59.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 47.0N 52.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/0000Z 51.2N 44.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 60.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z 62.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1200Z 64.5N 12.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
