Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #143821 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 31.Jul.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CHANTAL IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. AS CHANTAL PASSED VERY NEAR BUOY 44912 AROUND 2300 UTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995.1 MB. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/28. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...EXTRATROPICAL CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE MODEL SPREAD IS MUCH GREATER...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A SLOWER MOTION THAN EITHER THE GFS OR NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFS GLOBAL MEAN ENSEMBLE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CHANTAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 43.6N 58.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 46.6N 53.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 02/0000Z 51.7N 45.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/1200Z 56.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0000Z 57.9N 32.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z 60.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0000Z 62.0N 16.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0000Z 65.5N 8.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
